Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Dems in West on the brink of historic gains
Democracy Corps reports this (with some good news for Gary Trauner in Wyoming):
Democrats are on the brink of making historic gains in swing Mountain West Congressional districts. Four years ago in these 11 targeted districts (AZ-01, AZ-03, AZ-05, AZ-08, CO-04, ID-01, NV-02, NV-03, NM-01, NM-02, and WY-AL), Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry lost by 15 points and Democratic Congressional candidates lost by an average of 23 points. Now, however, a sea change has occurred as Obama is nearly tied with McCain (trailing by just three points – 45 – 48 percent) and Democrats lead in the aggregate vote (50-45 percent in the named Congressional vote). Even more encouraging is the fact that Democratic candidates lead in districts currently held by a Republican (48 – 47 percent).
While partisanship has hardened as we approach Election Day – a typical trend – Obama and Congressional Democratic candidates have made gains with key swing voters, including independent women, moderates, women over 50, union households, married voters, and parents of kids under 18.
With both the Democratic presidential candidate and Democratic Congressional candidates making such major strides from four years ago, we believe this represents a cultural shift. Voters in these districts are now seriously supporting Democrats for federal offices, including president, many for the very first time. This is an important point, because in recent elections, Democrats had made gains at the state level in this region, notably for governor and state legislature, but there remained a gap between state performance and federal performance. This poll shows that Democrats have closed this gap and are now breaking through at the federal level as well.
"Spit, baby, spit!"
Chris was home early from work today. I went by the store to pick up some gruel for dinner. So I was late getting to the scene of the crime.
"You just missed it," she said, as she and the dog and the cat streamed out the front door to greet me.
"Missed what?" I asked.
"Two guys in a blue pickup just came by and spit on our Obama sign."
"No kidding?" I looked at the sign. Seemed a bit damp, but still standing. I'm fond of this particular Obama sign because it's been in my yard since February, about a month before the historic Wyoming presidential caucuses.
As I brought in the groceries, Chris described how two white guys in their twenties pulled their faded blue pickup in front of our house. The driver leaned out of his window and hocked a big loogie right at the sign. The passenger was getting out of the truck when he saw Chris standing in our big picture window. He went back inside. As they sped off, Chris flashed them a peace sign.
"Could have been worse," I said.
"Maybe they were going to steal it," Chris guessed.
I have heard tales of yard signs for Democrats going missing. Barack Obama, Gary Trauner, Jim Byrd, Lori Millin.
But my sign is a lucky sign. It's going to bring victory to Obama in Laramie County. Spit or no spit.
"You just missed it," she said, as she and the dog and the cat streamed out the front door to greet me.
"Missed what?" I asked.
"Two guys in a blue pickup just came by and spit on our Obama sign."
"No kidding?" I looked at the sign. Seemed a bit damp, but still standing. I'm fond of this particular Obama sign because it's been in my yard since February, about a month before the historic Wyoming presidential caucuses.
As I brought in the groceries, Chris described how two white guys in their twenties pulled their faded blue pickup in front of our house. The driver leaned out of his window and hocked a big loogie right at the sign. The passenger was getting out of the truck when he saw Chris standing in our big picture window. He went back inside. As they sped off, Chris flashed them a peace sign.
"Could have been worse," I said.
"Maybe they were going to steal it," Chris guessed.
I have heard tales of yard signs for Democrats going missing. Barack Obama, Gary Trauner, Jim Byrd, Lori Millin.
But my sign is a lucky sign. It's going to bring victory to Obama in Laramie County. Spit or no spit.
View Lori Millin's VidAds -- and donate
Democrat Lori Millin is running for re-election in Wyoming's House District 8 (my district). She did a great job during her first two years in the Wyoming House. Let's send her back.
Her campaign filmed two ads and posted them on YouTube:
Click here to watch the "Constituent" ad
Click here to watch the "Family" ad
As she notes on her web site: "If you like the ads and want to help put them on the air, please make a donation. They cost $9 each time we run them. Let me know if you like them or which one you like best."
Her campaign filmed two ads and posted them on YouTube:
Click here to watch the "Constituent" ad
Click here to watch the "Family" ad
As she notes on her web site: "If you like the ads and want to help put them on the air, please make a donation. They cost $9 each time we run them. Let me know if you like them or which one you like best."
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Lummis will be a no-show for Wednesday's town hall meeting at UW
Cynthia Lummis will be sending a cardboard cut-out of herself to the congressional town hall meeting Wednesday, Oct. 29, at 4 p.m. in the University of Wyoming College of Arts and Sciences auditorium.
Actually, she'll be sending a representative from her campaign. Matched up against the stand-in will be the actual Democratic candidate for Wyoming's lone U.S. House seat, Gary Trauner. Also attending will be Libertarian W. David Herbert.
Wonder what's so important to keep Cynthia from this appearance at her alma mater (earned both bachelor's and juris doctor degrees at UW) and the state's only four-year university?
Pokes Vote, the Laramie Chamber of Commerce and the UW Office of Student Leadership and Civic Engagement host the free public event. According to a press release, "Pokes Vote has helped more than 600 UW students register to vote for the first time or make changes to their registration."
FMI: (307) 399-3350.
Actually, she'll be sending a representative from her campaign. Matched up against the stand-in will be the actual Democratic candidate for Wyoming's lone U.S. House seat, Gary Trauner. Also attending will be Libertarian W. David Herbert.
Wonder what's so important to keep Cynthia from this appearance at her alma mater (earned both bachelor's and juris doctor degrees at UW) and the state's only four-year university?
Pokes Vote, the Laramie Chamber of Commerce and the UW Office of Student Leadership and Civic Engagement host the free public event. According to a press release, "Pokes Vote has helped more than 600 UW students register to vote for the first time or make changes to their registration."
FMI: (307) 399-3350.
Voter turnout high in Laramie County
News on voter turnout from tonight's meeting of Laramie County Democrats:
10,000 people in the county have voted early. 8,000 of those votes were cast in person at the City & County Building Atrium in downtown Cheyenne. 2,000 were mail-in ballots.
Yesterday (Oct. 27) was the highest turnout at the Atrium: 700.
These figures come from the office of the Laramie County Clerk, Debbye Lathrop.
Secretary of State Max Maxfield's office reports there were 37,530 registered voters in Laramie County as of Oct. 1. That number could be a lot higher. On Oct. 6, the final day to register for the 2008 general election, was the highest-ever day for voter registrations in the history of Wyoming. Wowzir! So, we could have 38,000 or even more registered voters in this county.
But we know that at least one-quarter of registered voters have cast ballots in the state's largest county.
Three more days to vote early.
10,000 people in the county have voted early. 8,000 of those votes were cast in person at the City & County Building Atrium in downtown Cheyenne. 2,000 were mail-in ballots.
Yesterday (Oct. 27) was the highest turnout at the Atrium: 700.
These figures come from the office of the Laramie County Clerk, Debbye Lathrop.
Secretary of State Max Maxfield's office reports there were 37,530 registered voters in Laramie County as of Oct. 1. That number could be a lot higher. On Oct. 6, the final day to register for the 2008 general election, was the highest-ever day for voter registrations in the history of Wyoming. Wowzir! So, we could have 38,000 or even more registered voters in this county.
But we know that at least one-quarter of registered voters have cast ballots in the state's largest county.
Three more days to vote early.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Yet another letter to my Arizona son
Dear Kevin:
How's school? You know I have to ask that first. It's the irritating Dad in me.
I also want to irritate you about another matter. I know that you said you're going to vote. But have you? I ask for a couple reasons. Arizona has early voting, and it appears that the Democrats (at least according to tracking polls) are turning out in big numbers. But those numbers have to be really big because McCain still leads Obama 51-46 percent. That may seem like a lot, but last month McCain had a much wider lead of 59-38 percent. Sen. Obama has really closed the gap in the last month and it's getting tighter every day.
So you and your buddies have to get out and vote. Did you know that some national polls show that voters ages 18-30 are voting 2-1 for Obama? Your own Arizona Public Interest Research Group shows that this age group makes up a quarter of the electorate. That's not bad in a state known mainly for its cranky oldsters shriveling up in the Valley of the Sun. You know, people like John McCain, Arizona native.
So it's up to you and your peers. You and the guys (and some girls) who grew up on Dungeons & Dragons and Sonic the Hedgehog. We parents tried to inject some lectures on citizenship amongst all the videos and soccer games and school and driving lessons. Most of all, we tried to demonstrate what it means to be an engaged citizen, someone who really cares what goes on in his community. Some of that stuck, I know, because I've seen what you've accomplished and how you've behaved since you left home. Your Mom and I and sister are proud of you. We'd be proud of you even if you were a Republican. I was an election judge in Cheyenne when you came in to vote for the first time in 2004. I can't be with you this time but I know you'll do the right thing. Pressure!
I'll see you in January, when I'm in Phoenix on business. I'll even be there on Jan. 20, Inauguration Day for Barack Obama. Maybe we can watch it together on TV.
Love, Dad
P.S.: The Arizona Capitol Times reports this:
How's school? You know I have to ask that first. It's the irritating Dad in me.
I also want to irritate you about another matter. I know that you said you're going to vote. But have you? I ask for a couple reasons. Arizona has early voting, and it appears that the Democrats (at least according to tracking polls) are turning out in big numbers. But those numbers have to be really big because McCain still leads Obama 51-46 percent. That may seem like a lot, but last month McCain had a much wider lead of 59-38 percent. Sen. Obama has really closed the gap in the last month and it's getting tighter every day.
So you and your buddies have to get out and vote. Did you know that some national polls show that voters ages 18-30 are voting 2-1 for Obama? Your own Arizona Public Interest Research Group shows that this age group makes up a quarter of the electorate. That's not bad in a state known mainly for its cranky oldsters shriveling up in the Valley of the Sun. You know, people like John McCain, Arizona native.
So it's up to you and your peers. You and the guys (and some girls) who grew up on Dungeons & Dragons and Sonic the Hedgehog. We parents tried to inject some lectures on citizenship amongst all the videos and soccer games and school and driving lessons. Most of all, we tried to demonstrate what it means to be an engaged citizen, someone who really cares what goes on in his community. Some of that stuck, I know, because I've seen what you've accomplished and how you've behaved since you left home. Your Mom and I and sister are proud of you. We'd be proud of you even if you were a Republican. I was an election judge in Cheyenne when you came in to vote for the first time in 2004. I can't be with you this time but I know you'll do the right thing. Pressure!
I'll see you in January, when I'm in Phoenix on business. I'll even be there on Jan. 20, Inauguration Day for Barack Obama. Maybe we can watch it together on TV.
Love, Dad
P.S.: The Arizona Capitol Times reports this:
...at least one internal Republican poll conducted toward the end of the week showed McCain clinging to a tiny 3-point lead. McCain is tied in Maricopa County, usually seen as a death knell for any statewide Republican candidate, but he makes up the difference with a strong performance in the northern part of the state.
Tuesdays with the Democrats
The Laramie County Democrats will meet on Tuesday, Oct. 28, 7 p.m., at the Historic Plains Hotel in downtown Cheyenne. The main topic of conversation will be GOTV -- Getting Out the Vote. Election Day is one week from tomorrow! All are welcome, even lapsed Republicans and Libertarians.
On Tuesday, Nov. 4, 7 p.m., tired Democrats and fellow travelers (Socialists! Decembrists! Philatelists!) will gather together at the Plains Hotel to celebrate our victories, both nationally and locally. There will be food and a cash bar. Be prepared to stay up late -- or not. Polls will have been closed in some of the eastern states for two hours by the time we gather. Who knows?
On Tuesday, Nov. 4, 7 p.m., tired Democrats and fellow travelers (Socialists! Decembrists! Philatelists!) will gather together at the Plains Hotel to celebrate our victories, both nationally and locally. There will be food and a cash bar. Be prepared to stay up late -- or not. Polls will have been closed in some of the eastern states for two hours by the time we gather. Who knows?
VOTE EARLY VOTE EARLY VOTE EARLY -- TIME IS RUNNING OUT
Wyoming voters have until Friday at 5 p.m. to cast absentee ballots in person at their designated county voting sites. All mailed absentee ballots must be received in your county clerk's office by 7 p.m. on the day of the Election to be counted. The rest of us will be voting on Nov. 4 from 7 a.m.-7 p.m. Get out there and do your duty.
June Kronholz reported this today in the Wall Street Journal:
The prof's Colorado numbers on early votes: 697,972.
What's this all mean? Heck if I know. It does reflect a tremendous interest in casting a vote. The majority are Democrats. Unless they're voting for Nader, all this voting is good for Sen. Obama.
June Kronholz reported this today in the Wall Street Journal:
Almost 11 million voters already have cast ballots in the 2008 elections, and Democrats seem to have cast the majority of them, according to incomplete information compiled by George Mason University Professor Michael McDonald.
McDonald’s Web site, which he says he will update continuously between now and Election Day, reports that 2.1 million Florida voters have cast early ballots, with registered Democrats casting 45% of them, Republicans casting 40% and independents casting 15%.
The prof's Colorado numbers on early votes: 697,972.
What's this all mean? Heck if I know. It does reflect a tremendous interest in casting a vote. The majority are Democrats. Unless they're voting for Nader, all this voting is good for Sen. Obama.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
See 3 Dems and 1 Repub on LCCC TV
LarCoDems' member Mary Lou Marcum sends this info:
Please help get the word out. The three Democratic Congressional candidates and Rick Kaysen will be appearing on LCCC Ch. 11 next week, from Oct 27 on. David Marcum, LCCC Political Science instructor will be interviewing them.
The schedule is as follows:
Gary Trauner & Chris Rothfoss: Monday at 9 a.m., Tuesday at 2 p.m., Wednesday at 8 p.m., Thursday at 3 p.m., and Friday/Saturday/Sunday at 10 a.m.
Nick Carter & Rick Kaysen: Monday at 2 p.m., Tuesday at 7 p.m., Wednesday at 3 p.m., Thursday at 11 a.m., and Friday/Saturday and Sunday at 2 p.m.
These are not debates but Q&A interviews. Should be interesting. Wish we could get the info to non-Democrats as well. The Republican candidates and Democratic condidate for mayor Jayne Mockler didn't respond to the invitation to appear on the shows.
Please help get the word out. The three Democratic Congressional candidates and Rick Kaysen will be appearing on LCCC Ch. 11 next week, from Oct 27 on. David Marcum, LCCC Political Science instructor will be interviewing them.
The schedule is as follows:
Gary Trauner & Chris Rothfoss: Monday at 9 a.m., Tuesday at 2 p.m., Wednesday at 8 p.m., Thursday at 3 p.m., and Friday/Saturday/Sunday at 10 a.m.
Nick Carter & Rick Kaysen: Monday at 2 p.m., Tuesday at 7 p.m., Wednesday at 3 p.m., Thursday at 11 a.m., and Friday/Saturday and Sunday at 2 p.m.
These are not debates but Q&A interviews. Should be interesting. Wish we could get the info to non-Democrats as well. The Republican candidates and Democratic condidate for mayor Jayne Mockler didn't respond to the invitation to appear on the shows.
Obama paddles toward victory
Manuel Olveda in Powell decided to take some yard sale items and made a sign for Barack Obama. Pretty creative, I'd say. This photo was on the Powell Tribune blog. On a separate post, the PowellTribBlogger wondered why there are so many more Obama signs that ones for McCain in a county that has five times more registered Republicans than Democrats. A trend?More than 100,000 rally in Denver
Civic Center Park in downtown Denver. Denver Post photo. Go to Square State for a lot more.
Down in Denver and Ft. Collins, Obama rallies the Dem faithful
Postcard from our Republican overlords
This mailer came to households around Casper, even to those who have deserted the sinking Repub ship. And why is this man smiling?
The other side of the card...
Waiting for Obama in Fort Collins
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