Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Dems in West on the brink of historic gains

Democracy Corps reports this (with some good news for Gary Trauner in Wyoming):

Democrats are on the brink of making historic gains in swing Mountain West Congressional districts. Four years ago in these 11 targeted districts (AZ-01, AZ-03, AZ-05, AZ-08, CO-04, ID-01, NV-02, NV-03, NM-01, NM-02, and WY-AL), Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry lost by 15 points and Democratic Congressional candidates lost by an average of 23 points. Now, however, a sea change has occurred as Obama is nearly tied with McCain (trailing by just three points – 45 – 48 percent) and Democrats lead in the aggregate vote (50-45 percent in the named Congressional vote). Even more encouraging is the fact that Democratic candidates lead in districts currently held by a Republican (48 – 47 percent).

While partisanship has hardened as we approach Election Day – a typical trend – Obama and Congressional Democratic candidates have made gains with key swing voters, including independent women, moderates, women over 50, union households, married voters, and parents of kids under 18.

With both the Democratic presidential candidate and Democratic Congressional candidates making such major strides from four years ago, we believe this represents a cultural shift. Voters in these districts are now seriously supporting Democrats for federal offices, including president, many for the very first time. This is an important point, because in recent elections, Democrats had made gains at the state level in this region, notably for governor and state legislature, but there remained a gap between state performance and federal performance. This poll shows that Democrats have closed this gap and are now breaking through at the federal level as well.

1 comment:

victor said...

Its really great thought ,,
thanks for this great information ,,

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