Monday, March 19, 2012

Demographic shifts spell doom for GOP, but not in Wyoming

Why are these aging white guys laughing?
This comes from Reader Supported News:

Pew Research Center Director Andrew Kohut had this to say following the release of a survey last Wednesday that showed support for the GOP tanking among college-educated, young and non-white voters:
"The Republicans really are the party of white people, and especially older white people," Kohut told reporters as the poll was released. "They've done nothing in this campaign to make themselves be more favorably viewed" among other parts of the electorate.
Republican strategists such as Karl Rove keep arguing that the Republican Party needs to find ways to reach out to other demographic groups, particularly Latinos.
The example of what could happen if the party does not do so is California, where the GOP became alienated from Latinos just as their voting percentage began to rise rapidly. Over the last five election cycles, California has moved from being a swing state to being one of the most solidly Democratic states in the country.
Republicans don't face that sort of dire situation nationwide, in part because the nation's demographics differ from California's. Whites without a college degree form a much larger percentage of the voting population nationwide, and that group has become a bastion for the Republicans. But as the country becomes less white and more college-educated, the picture is changing. And the numbers in the Pew survey provide some bad omens for the GOP. 
Latinos, for example, view the Republican Party unfavorably by a 2-1 margin (30% favorable, 60% unfavorable). By contrast, Latinos view the Democrats favorably, 56%-31%. The picture among Americans under 30 is almost as negative, with 34% viewing the GOP favorably, while 53% have an unfavorable view. Their view of Democrats is almost the exact opposite, 54% have a positive view, and 35% negative. 
Among those with a college degree or more, only 31% said they had a favorable view of the Republicans, while 66% were unfavorable. That group, which was a key to Barack Obama's victory in 2008, views Democrats favorably by 55%-42%. 
No chance any time soon that Wyoming will waver from its Republican voting patterns. The state is 91 percent white and is aging rapidly. Until serious cohort replacement takes place, it's the Democrats who are doomed in The Equality State.

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